That unpredictability doesn't hide the fact Max Verstappen remains a distant target for the chasing pack in the championship. The reigning world champion hasn't won any of the past three grands prix, yet retains a 76-point advantage over Lando Norris in P2. His lead will almost certainly reduce before the summer recess, though, with a Belgian grid penalty awaiting the 26-year-old.
Red Bull Racing is changing Verstappen's engine, exceeding the car's annual allowance. The 10-place grid drop will see the Dutchman fighting through the field at a track where overtaking is possible. The team deliberately chose the same race in previous seasons for Verstappen to suffer grid penalties, and Verstappen went on to win with relative ease. 2024 looks different, however.
McLaren, not Red Bull, is the team with the fastest car. Norris and Piastri duked it out for the Hungarian GP win over the radio after poor pit stop timing. The Woking outfit will look to avoid making strategic mistakes again. It's been a dozen years since McLaren won multiple races in a year, and they look like they need to shake the dust off their how-to-win manual. The fallout, if any, from Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen's radio exchanges is one to keep an eye on.
At the other end of the grid, Esteban Ocon will replace Kevin Magnussen at Haas for 2025. Many have expected this news for a while, and it seems the Danish driver's F1 career will come to a close. Ocon, however, can celebrate finding a lifeline for himself in a one-off Alpine livery promoting the new Deadpool movie. The Frenchman is an avid Marvel fan and might feel buoyant with a new look and new contract in hand.
A new track surface at Spa could add complications for the tyres. Pirelli will supply the C2, C3, and C4 compounds for the 2024 Belgian GP, which is the same trio as the previous two years. Yet there is resurfaced asphalt between Turn 17 to Turn 4, including the pit lane, so the teams must learn its characteristics quickly.
Of course, there is an added difficulty for any data collection in this stretch of the Ardennes Forest. Wet weather can hit the track, and we've often seen some sections of Spa dry while others are under a downpour. With showers expected on Friday and Saturday, getting any dry laps in Free Practice will be crucial.
Verstappen's grid penalties didn't stop him from winning in 2022 (from P14) or 2023 (from P6). Yet, Red Bull had the fastest car by far in those years, and that's not the case today. McLaren looks most likely to be the ones at the front, and they head into Spa with a nine-race podium run. Whether Norris or Piastri leads the way on the first lap might be the key to knowing who'll win.
It's not a foregone conclusion that the papaya team will be the ones to take the chequered flag, though. Mercedes has enjoyed a resurgence since Canada. The Silver Arrows have two victories, two pole positions, and three further podium finishes from the past five races. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell will be in a fighting mood knowing that Verstappen will be far down the road behind them and only McLaren stand between them and P1.
Ferrari's two drivers aren't doing terribly, but Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz's team has lost some early-season potency. Might the Scuderia succeed at Spa? Elsewhere, how Sergio Perez fares might determine the Mexican's longevity at Red Bull. Team Principal Christian Horner has expressed dissatisfaction over Perez's performances, and crashing in Q1 in Hungary won't have helped. A Belgian win while Verstappen is hamstrung would be just the result Perez needs.
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Like last weekend, the race starts at 2 PM on Sunday afternoon. Qualifying has a 3 PM start time, and forecasts suggest it could be the only rain-affected competitive session.
Qualifying – On air: 2:15 PM, Session start: 3 PM Saturday 27th July
Race – On air: 12:30 PM, Session start: 3 PM 28th July
Race – Highlights: 7:30 PM Sunday 27th July
Race – On air: 6:30 PM Sunday 28th July
Qualifying/Race – Unlike the heat (and unexpected Qualifying shower) in Hungary, there are more mild temperatures in Belgium. Highs of 22°C are forecast for Sunday with almost no chance of rain. By contrast, Saturday's Qualifying sees a cooler 18°C and a 75% chance of rainfall.